My CV can be found here.

Publications and Working Papers

Daniel Mattingly, Trevor Incerti, Changwook Ju, Colin Moreshead, Seiki Tanaka, and Hikaru Yamagishi. “Chinese State Media Persuades a Global Audience That the “China Model” is Superior: Evidence From A 19-Country Experiment.” (Pre-analysis Plan) Accepted with minor revisions, American Journal of Political Science. Featured in The Economist, Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions.

Abstract: Many are skeptical of the appeal of authoritarian political systems. We argue that global audiences will embrace authoritarian models when they believe that autocracies can meet governance challenges better than democracies. We collect comprehensive data on the external messaging of the Chinese and American governments. We then conduct a randomized experiment in 19 countries across 6 continents exposing global citizens to real messages from the Chinese and American governments’ external media arms. We find that exposure to a representative set of Chinese messages strengthens perceptions that the Chinese Communist Party delivers growth, stability, and competent leadership. It also moves the average respondent from slightly preferring the American model to slightly preferring the Chinese model. In head-to-head matchups, messages from the U.S. government are less persuasive. Our findings show how autocracies build global support by selling growth and competence, with important implications for democratic resilience.

Amano, Kenya, Melanie Sayuri Dominguez, Timothy Fraser, Etienne Gagnon, Trevor Incerti, Jinhyuk Jang, Charles T. McClean, Austin M. Mitchell, Sayumi Miyano, Colin Moreshead, Harunobu Saijo, Diana Stanescu, Ayumi Teraoka, Hikaru Yamagishi, Charmaine N. Willis, Yujin Woo, and Charles Crabtree. 2022. “Field Research When There Is Limited Access to the Field: Lessons from Japan.” PS: Political Science & Politics: 1-7.

Abstract: How can scholars conduct field research when there is limited access to the field? The paper first identifies how limited and uncertain field access can affect field research and then provides recommendations to address these challenges. We focus on doing field research in Japan both because of our substantive expertise, but we think that problems and solutions we outline should be applicable to a broad range of countries. Our hope is that this paper contributes to the developing literature on conducting research during times of emergency and the larger literature on best practices for field research.

Trevor Incerti, Changwook Ju, Dan Mattingly, Colin Moreshead, Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Seiki Tanaka, and Hikaru Yamagishi. “How Domestic Politics Shapes International Soft Power Promotion: Evidence From East Asia.” Working paper (under review).

Abstract: In recent years, established democracies and ascendant autocracies have competed for the hearts and minds of citizens across the globe. In this article, we develop a novel theory of soft power effectiveness centered on the relations between soft power senders and receivers. We argue that when relations with soft power senders remain depoliticized in receivers’ domestic politics, soft power promotion fares well. When the relations are politicized, however, it risks backfiring. To test our theory, we conduct a multi-country experiment in East Asia that examines the effect of real-world Chinese and Japanese soft power promotion efforts. The experimental results lend credence to our theory. Where relations are depoliticized, soft power promotion efforts strengthen support for bilateral cooperation, and where relations are politicized, the same soft power treatments cause backlash. Our findings highlight that autocracies can effectively project soft power insofar as they retain good ties with their soft power recipients.